Insider Spotlight
For property developers, cafés can help activate retail spaces, fill quiet hours and bring in a new class of foreign tenants, according to CBRE Philippines’ second-quarter 2026 Market Monitor.
Why it matters
CBRE Philippines head of transaction management and retail Maam Argos describes Manila as a major underpenetrated regional market, with per-capita coffee consumption still below Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia.
Malaysia’s ZUS Coffee and Indonesia’s Tomoro Coffee have already established Philippine networks, while CBRE is watching China’s Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee, South Korea’s Compose Coffee and theVenti, and Japan’s Key Coffee.
“Manila remains underpenetrated compared with other markets in the region, and that is attracting new coffee brands looking for scale,” Argos said.
CBRE estimates a newcomer could require 10 to 30 locations in its first 12 months to establish a meaningful presence—creating opportunities for malls, mixed-use projects and office developments.
“Developers need to pay attention not just to who is coming in, but to which operators have the balance sheet and expansion strategy to sustain that growth,” Argos said.
Beyond the caffeine
Coffee can also address what CBRE calls a development’s “worst daypart.”
Data cited by CBRE indicate 15 to 20 visits per customer per month can inject activity into slow weekday mornings and mid-days. Large chains tend to generate grab-and-go traffic, while boutique cafés can keep customers around longer.
“Big chains bring in traffic. Boutique brands hold it. A retail strip should have one of each,” CBRE said.
The competitive landscape is also widening. Mid-sized chains increased their share of visits from 10.8 percent to 17.6 percent since 2019 as consumers increasingly gravitate toward cafés with distinctive interiors, local identity and personalized experiences.
Where next
CBRE identifies Quezon City, Alabang and the Bay Area as white spaces.
Quezon City offers a large, young and educated dining population; Alabang an affluent residential catchment; and the Bay Area access to casino-tourism traffic.
The opportunity also extends beyond malls. Coffee can become part of the amenity and placemaking mix for office and mixed-use developments seeking to generate activity throughout the day.
The catch
A growing market does not mean every café will survive.
“Coffee shops are NOT bank branches,” CBRE warns, noting that aggressive expansion can coexist with individual store closures.
CBRE considers global brands and private equity-backed local operators safer bets because of their balance sheets. It also suggests percentage rent to provide visibility into sales and shorter initial leases with landlord break rights.
What to watch
Expansion plans underscore the fight for locations. Pickup Coffee is targeting 800 stores by end-2026, Bo’s Coffee 400 by 2030 and Coffee Project 300 by 2027, while ZUS is targeting more than 80 stores this year.
Add foreign newcomers that could each need dozens of sites, and the next Philippine coffee battle may be fought as much over real estate as what goes into the cup.
For developers, the question is which brands can bring traffic, make customers stay—and keep pouring after the caffeine rush settles. —Ramon C. Nocon|Ed: Corrie S. Narisma
