Abacus Securities research head Nicky Franco has long been among GCash’s biggest believers, saying in 2024 that parent Mynt could be worth $5 billion to $6 billion, one of the earliest public valuations of the fintech ahead of its planned stock market debut.
He made that call even before Japanese investors MUFG and Mitsubishi Corp. invested in Mynt at a $5 billion valuation.
“Personally, I don’t believe that Mint will list anywhere close to 10 pesos per share. That number is just a placeholder for the prospectus,” Franco said during the brokerage house’s mid-year outlook.
At P10 per share, the company would be worth nearly $11 billion.
Closer to P7
“So in the case of Mynt, given the much less robust macro backdrop that we have today compared to when Maynilad listed, then I think that it will be, or should be, closer to 7 pesos, or even lower than that,” Franco said.
Franco pointed to the Maynilad IPO, another megacap listing whose final offer price was cut 25 percent from its initial indicative price, saying Mynt could undergo a similar repricing before listing.
A P7 offer price would value Mynt at about P468 billion ($7.7 billion), well below the roughly P669 billion implied by the P10 placeholder in the prospectus.
Other price risks
In a separate move, top lenders led by Bank of the Philippine Islands have begun waiving online fund transfer fees, intensifying competition in digital payments.
InsiderPH, in a recent opinion piece, reported that the shift could pressure one of GCash’s biggest revenue engines ahead of its planned IPO.
Still a giant
Even at P468 billion, Mynt would rank as the country’s third most valuable financial institution, behind only BDO Unibank Inc. and BPI.
Franco said today’s weaker macroeconomic backdrop justifies a more conservative valuation than investors may have expected when the IPO was first anticipated.
International competition
Franco also said Mynt may have to compete with another major technology listing for investor attention.
“There’s an even larger IPO upcoming in India for Reliance Jio, which is the number one telco in India that looms on the horizon,” he said.
“Jio has filed its red herring prospectus already, and that IPO could also happen toward the end of the year. So that might compete for attention against Mynt and could draw liquidity away from regional telcos.”
Despite the lower target price, Franco remains constructive on GCash’s long-term prospects.
“There will be a migration of investors from the parent to the fintechs,” he said, referring to Globe Telecom as Mynt prepares for its market debut.
—Edited by Miguel R. Camus
