Pagcor reset in decisive phase as online gambling firms face shakeout

Insider Spotlight

• B2B supplier accreditation deadlines and minimum guaranteed fees are expected to reshape the online gaming market in the second half of 2026.
• Arden Consult says the next measure of success will be higher channelization rather than a return to rapid revenue growth.
• The paper warns that regulators must keep legal platforms competitive while stepping up action against illegal operators.

The Philippine online gambling industry is entering what could be its most consequential phase yet, with tighter licensing standards, supplier accreditation requirements and stricter responsible gaming rules expected to trigger further consolidation through the rest of 2026, according to a new white paper by gaming advisory firm Arden Consult.

Rather than focusing on recovering gaming revenues following Pagcor’s first-half decline, the report argues that policymakers should judge success by whether more gambling activity shifts to licensed operators instead of illegal platforms, a metric known as channelization.

Why it matters

Authored by lawyer Marie Antonette Quiogue, the paper says the industry’s next chapter will be defined less by headline revenue figures than by whether regulatory reforms succeed in creating a smaller but more compliant market supported by long-term investment.

Tonet Quiogue

The Arden Consult chief says the online gambling industry faces a more challenging landscape ahead. 

From Aug. 1, non-compliant business-to-business providers face decommissioning, while Pagcor’s minimum guaranteed fee rule takes effect as a mechanism to weed out inactive or undercapitalized license holders. The report says more operators could surrender licenses or merge, while suppliers may either complete accreditation, partner with accredited firms or exit the market altogether.

Arden Consult said these developments should not necessarily be interpreted as industry weakness.

Instead, it expects regulators to monitor whether licensed operators continue investing in compliance, cybersecurity, technology and responsible gaming while enforcement against illegal websites and payment channels accelerates.

Looking ahead

The paper projects that the impact of last year’s removal of gambling links from e-wallet interfaces and tighter player verification requirements should gradually fade as operators adapt. It expects the market to stabilize before returning to slower but higher-quality growth if the current regulatory framework remains consistent.

Still, Arden Consult cautions that regulators face a delicate balancing act.

If legal platforms become materially less convenient than illegal alternatives, players could migrate back to unlicensed operators, undermining Pagcor’s efforts to channel gambling into regulated, taxable and accountable platforms. The report argues that future policy should therefore combine tougher standards for licensed operators with faster enforcement against illegal sites, payment channels and affiliates.

The report concludes that the next 12 months will test whether Pagcor can preserve that balance by making the regulated market safer without making it uncompetitive, shifting the industry’s long-term focus from maximizing gaming revenue toward building a market that is resilient, accountable and trusted.

— Edited by Daxim L. Lucas