Veteran forecaster Jonathan Ravelas won recognition for his accurate market predictions on the economy, especially on vital interest rates and inflation, according to Barcelona, Spain-based FocusEconomics.
Ravelas, the managing director of eManagement for Business and Marketing Services (EMBM), secured the top award for his interest rate forecasts and ranked second in the inflation category during the prestigious FocusEconomics’ Analyst Forecast Awards 2024.
Ravelas was chief market strategist for two decades with BDO Unibank, the country’s largest lender by assets, until June 2022. Apart from EMBM, he serves as senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., where he provides daily market views to clients.
“FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards are yearly awards that recognize the most accurate economic forecasters,” the company said.
The data is gathered from analyst forecasts for six economic indicators (gross domestic product, fiscal balance, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and current account) spanning 100 countries.
Metrobank, HSBC, UBS among top PH winners
In the interest rate category, Ravelas was followed by HSBC’s Joey Chew and Jenny Jin and Goldman Sach’s Rina Jio and Jonathan Sequeria.
For the inflation category, Ty family’s Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank) secured the top prize, followed by Ravelas and Sarah Tan.
Metrobank again landed No. 1 in exchange rates, followed by the UBS Research Team and HSBC’s Chew and Jin.
EMBM celebrates win
“We are proud to celebrate Jonathan L. Ravelas’ exceptional forecasting abilities,” eManagement for Business and Marketing Services President, Cristy Llacer-Oreta, said in a statement.
“His insights have been invaluable to our clients and the broader business community,” Llacer-Oreta said.
Latest forecasts
Ravelas’ recent forecasts for 2024 paint a picture of an economy that is not yet out of the woods.
While upside risks to inflation remain, the hawkish tone of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has kept inflation expectations in check, Ravelas said in a message to InsiderPH.
In an updated forecast, Ravelas said inflation could ease to 3.9 percent in 2024, within the BSP’s 2-4 percent target range. A 50 basis point cut by the BSP would also bring the benchmark interest rate to 6 percent by year-end, he said.
Meanwhile, the Philippine peso is expected to settle at 56.50 against the US dollar while the benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index will end the year at 7,100.
Miguel R. Camus has been a reporter covering various domestic business topics since 2009.
