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“There’s an old saying in Wall Street: ‘The uncertainty is worse than the bad news’. Now we know the bad news, we can do away with uncertainty,” BDO Unibank president Nestor Tan said in an interview with Singapore’s Channel News Asia aired on Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025.
He noted that exports account for just 16 percent of Philippine economic output, with the US market taking only 2 percent of that share.
“If you’re looking at the impact on our GDP, you’re looking at a few basis points,” he added.
Wider ripples could still emerge
Tan warned, however, that indirect effects could be more significant. Exporters to other markets hit by US tariffs could feel the pinch, with possible knock-on effects on remittances and overseas employment.
“We still have to see those effects,” he said.
He added that while tariffs will slow global demand, the Philippines could benefit from redirected trade flows.
“We tend to have a counter cyclical effect,” the head of the Sy-family controlled financial giant said. When the whole world is slowing down, we tend to get better deals from our trading partners.”
Loan growth, spending trends remain positive
BDO is seeing loan growth in the low teens, supported by consumption and a revival in capital spending by the middle market.
“When [entrepreneurs] start to invest, they’re seeing something optimistic in the market,” Tan said.
This sector, he noted, is the country’s largest employer.
Earnings outlook steady
For the first half, BDO posted a 3 percent earnings gain, with double-digit growth in lending and stable asset quality. Fee income remains supported by client acquisition, while investments in productive capacity have picked up.
Medium-term growth hinges on stability
Tan identified two key drivers ahead: infrastructure projects awaiting stability and a housing backlog of nearly 10 million units outside Metro Manila targeted for completion by 2028.
“There has to be some catching up there,” he said.
— Edited by Daxim L. Lucas
