Insider Spotlight
This weaker outlook reflects more than economic headwinds, with confidence emerging as the market’s biggest challenge.
“We don’t think it’s going to improve in the next two quarters. It’s going to be a really rough two quarters ahead. Right now, we can’t even show evidence to you that would say 2027 will be a better year. We can only hope for more market stimulus,” Tam Angel, director for investment sales at Leechiu Property Consultants, said during a media briefing on Tuesday.
Despite the gloomy near-term outlook, the consultancy believes the industry’s long-term growth engine remains intact.
Confidence over affordability
Leechiu Property Consultants founder and CEO David Leechiu said confidence has become the market’s biggest missing ingredient, arguing that stronger governance and lower corruption are needed to restore buyer sentiment.
“It’s a question of confidence,” he said.
“If we are able to bring corruption down to some less scandalous level, that would dramatically translate to increased confidence," he added.
Leechiu also urged government leaders to attract “more competent, credible and well-meaning” public officials, citing Finance Secretary Frederick Go as an example.
“A big chunk of how disheartened people are today is because of corruption,” he said.
Developers hit pause
Developers are already adjusting to the tougher environment.
Roy Golez, director for research and consultancy at Leechiu Property Consultants, said developers have become increasingly selective, with around 10 residential projects put on hold since 2025 and about 17 since 2023, when market headwinds became more pronounced.
Those include Ayala Land’s planned 70-story Laurean Residences luxury tower in Makati City.
The caution is also reflected in Metro Manila’s condominium market. Unsold inventory has climbed to a record 82,900 units, equivalent to about 34 months of supply, even as residential take-up rose 6 percent in the first half to 14,500 units.
Rather than flooding the market with new supply, developers launched just 4,900 units, focusing instead on selling existing inventory.
Condominium rents also remained under pressure across major business districts, with only Bonifacio Global City and Taguig recovering to pre-pandemic rental levels.
Reasons for optimism
Even with record inventory, Leechiu executives said the market’s underlying demand remains intact.
The consultancy said reservation activity improved from the first to the second quarter based on its discussions with developers, while demographics, employment and remittances continue to underpin long-term housing demand.
One of the biggest near-term positives, Angel said, is the Pag-IBIG Fund’s higher P10 million housing loan ceiling, which expands financing access for middle-income buyers and could unlock fresh residential demand despite lingering economic uncertainty.
The recent World Bank upgrade to upper-middle-income status is an important milestone, but it could take years or even decades for many Filipinos to truly feel its benefits.
“The engine is still sound but we are bracing for very rough roads,” Angel said.
—Edited by Miguel R. Camus
