Just ask Axelum Resources Corp., whose soaring share price is delaying the very takeover and potential privatization speculators are betting on.
Tycoon Manuel V. Pangilinan’s (MVP) Metro Pacific Investments Corp. may have exited from the Philippine Stock Exchange three years ago, but it continues to make big stock market moves.
One such deal involves Axelum, a major coconut-products exporter best known as a supplier to global coconut-water brand Vita Coco.
Metro Pacific already owns a 34.8-percent interest in Axelum, and market players know MVP rarely settles for a minority stake.
An insider on the buyer’s side confirmed that moves were already in motion, but this being the stock market, word must have accidentally slipped out.
Axelum has gained over 35 percent since the start of the year and 60 percent over the past 12 months. It last closed at P3.07, valuing the firm at about P11.7 billion.
Metro Pacific is now taking a harder look at the deal and is prepared to tap the brakes with the price overtaking what it believes is the fair value.
“There was no war when Metro Pacific came in the first time. The industry is challenged now because of shipping costs, which have become very expensive,” the insider said.
There’s also concern that some shareholders with sizable positions are intentionally pushing the price higher in hopes of forcing a more generous offer from MVP.
Axelum’s relatively small public float makes the stock easier to move.
Speculators may be betting on a repeat of Metro Pacific’s 2023 privatization, when it raised its offer midway through the process. But no matter how sweet the coconuts, we’re told there is no appetite this time around.
For traders speculating that a deal will happen soon, there’s reason to err on the side of caution.
“The buyer is willing to wait. We have a sense of what the right value is. Speculative buying is bringing the price past that value,” the insider said.
Miguel R. Camus has been a reporter covering various domestic business topics since 2009.
