Harris or Trump won’t change course, renowned PH economist predicts China exit, key growth areas

Renowned economist Dr. Bernardo Villegas, popularly known as the Prophet of Boom due to his bullish views, predicts a significant shift in the next decade: regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins the US elections, Western-aligned economies will move manufacturing away from China amid rising geopolitical risks.

The spotlight will shift to regional allies, including Vietnam and the Philippines, where provinces in Central Luzon and Batangas are emerging as key development hubs.

Villegas is particularly excited about the P400-billion Luzon Economic Corridor, a major infrastructure program that spans railways, ports, electronics, and clean power plants, spearheaded by the US and Japan.

“Whether it’s Harris or Trump who wins, they would like to move a lot of their factories away from China and then back to the United States or, at least, to friendly countries like the Philippines,” said Villegas, who was a guest speaker at an economics briefing organized by EastWest Bank and Prestige by Filinvest.

Mini-Vietnam in Luzon? 

Villegas, a co-founder and professor at the University of Asia & the Pacific, noted that factories are mainly shifting to Vietnam, where power costs are lower and transport infrastructure is more accessible.

But some of these investments are also flowing toward the Philippines via the Luzon Economic Corridor.

“The Americans and Japanese are planning to invest a lot of money in railways, energy, and other infrastructure that will create a mini-Vietnam in that area around Batangas and Manila,” he said.

Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas
​University of Asia & the Pacific Economist, Professor 

Lowering power costs to drive growth  

Long-term power rates could decrease if the country invests in nuclear technology, particularly small modular reactors.

“Renewable energy, such as solar and wind, are not bringing down costs. And that is why we are missing all those factories going to Vietnam,” Villegas said.

“For us to be really attractive to manufacturing companies, we need to have lower energy costs,” he added.

The Philippine economy is forecast to be among the fastest growing in Asia./Photo taken from Dr. Villegas' presentation during the EastWest, Filinvest event on Oct. 15, 2024. 

Emerging growth hub 

Property developers are also starting to turn their attention to the so-called Pampanga Golden Triangle, which includes San Fernando, Angeles, Clark and surrounding areas. 

These locations present a ‘tremendous opportunity’ that could boom over the next 5-10 years,” Villegas said, adding that this growth would be further benefited by his view that the Philippines will remain among ASEAN’s fastest-growing economies.

His main concern is that the current pace of expansion won’t be sufficient to reduce the high poverty rates compared to peer nations.

Villegas’ views on the economy were highly sought after, especially during the Ramos era in the mid-1990s, as the country experienced rapid growth.

Despite the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, he maintained his positive outlook on the Philippines.

Road to 2050

During the EastWest-Filinvest event, he said his bullish views even extend to his own longevity, predicting he could live well past 100.

During discussions about where the Philippines will be by 2050, some listeners joked that the timeline feels too distant, expressing doubts about whether they’ll still be around by then.

“I tell them speak for yourself,” he quipped. “My mother lived up to 102, so I may still be there in 2050.”

About the author
Miguel R. Camus
Miguel R. Camus

Miguel R. Camus has been a reporter covering various domestic business topics since 2009.

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