Thirteen of the 14 ASEAN+3 member economies are subject to some of the highest effective tariff rates under the new measures, with a trade-weighted average of 26 percent excluding China.
ADB projects the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 6 percent in 2025 and 6.1 percent in 2026, outpacing the 5.6 percent growth in 2024 and contrasting with the expected slowdown across developing Asia and the Pacific.
BPI estimates suggest a 0.5-percent reduction in GDP growth could result from diminished export demand and disruptions to global supply chains. This would lower the 2025 growth forecast from 6.3 percent to 5.8 percent.
The Philippine economy grew by 5.6 percent in 2024, slightly exceeding the 5.5 percent growth in 2023, but crucially missing the government’s 6-6.5 percent target, according to National Economic and Development Authority Undersecretary Rosemarie Edillon.
Looking forward, NEDA Secretary Balisacan is optimistic about a fourth quarter recovery, driven by holiday spending, stable inflation, and lower interest rates.
HSBC Philippines head of markets and securities services Corrie Purisima shared insights from HSBC Global Research, which projects the Philippine GDP to grow by 6.7 percent by 2026, making it one of the region’s fastest-growing economies.