In a statement, the agency said this revision, released in its latest Asean+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) update, reflects slower-than-expected growth in China and Vietnam.
Despite the downgrade, AMRO anticipates a stronger 2025 performance, with the region expected to expand by 4.4 percent.
AMRO maintained its economic growth forecast for the Philippines at 6.1 percent for 2024 and 6.3 percent for 2025, while also keeping its inflation rate projection for the country at 3.3 percent for this year and 3.1 percent for next year. Both projections are unchanged in the October report from the the levels set in the July edition.
The Plus-3 economies, consisting of China, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea, are projected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2024, while the Asean bloc is expected to maintain a more robust 4.7 percent growth rate.
Key drivers for the region include a sustained recovery in external trade, tourism, and resilient domestic demand.
Meanwhile, inflationary pressures are easing, with AMRO revising the region’s 2024 inflation forecast to 1.9 percent, down from 2.1 percent in July.
However, risks loom on the horizon, particularly regarding potential US-China trade tensions, protectionist policies post-US elections, and market volatility.
AMRO chief economist Hoe Ee Khor emphasized the need for continued regional cooperation to navigate rising global uncertainties, noting that stimulus measures from China could offer positive spillover effects.
The full analysis is available in AMRO’s latest AREO quarterly update, with the next update slated for release in January 2025.
