The stock slumped more than 3 percent on Tuesday to close at P14.74 apiece, its lowest finish since Oct. 6, 2011. The P15 level was also seen as a key psychological support area for chart-based traders.
Since the start of 2026, the Zobel family-led real estate giant has lost over a third of its value or about P110 billion.
This is much steeper than large-cap peers such as the Sy family’s SM Prime Holdings (-16.5 percent), Gokongwei-led Robinsons Land Corp. (+9.73 percent), and Tan-backed Megaworld Corp. (-1.4 percent).
Property slowdown bites
Weak consumer sentiment and slowing demand in both the mid-market and luxury segments continue to weigh on its growth prospects, which were already dragged by the lingering effects of the flood-control controversy in 2025.
As a result, Ayala Land is now being priced by the market at historically low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 5.6 times, Bloomberg data showed.
This is about 80 percent below its average P/E over the past two decades.
That should be screaming “buy” for one of the stock market’s blue chip stocks, yet many investors are deciding to cut loose until storm clouds clear.
Share buyback?
To stem the selloff in its shares, Ayala Land launched a fresh P10 billion buyback program, one of the few direct tools companies have to help stabilize falling stock prices.
This provided temporary relief, but the rebound was short-lived.
Based on regulatory filings, the last buyback transaction was made nearly a month ago on April 20. Ayala Land has so far deployed about P540 million, or just over 5 percent of the fund, in its first three weeks.
Debt worries deepen
The builder, part of the Ayala Corp. conglomerate, earlier announced a strategic pivot toward leasing and hotels.
This was before reporting first-quarter results showing net income fell 23 percent to P5.4 billion while revenues declined 14 percent.
April Lynn Tan, COL Financial Group chief equity strategist, said market jitters were likely driven by fears of looming interest rate hikes, which could make mortgage costs more expensive and typically cause buyers to delay purchases.
COL Financial Group, in a May 4, 2026 report, cited concerns over weak residential sales coupled with a debt load of P315 billion that has moved “in the wrong direction.”
The brokerage noted that much of the borrowings went into leasing expansion and estate development, which supports long-term growth, but are already weighing on Ayala Land’s balance sheet and suppressing the value of its shares.
Waiting for the bottom
Another key move is Ayala Land’s decision to focus on capital discipline, canceling or delaying projects while cutting capital expenditures this year from as much as P80 billion to P50 billion.
COL Financial rated Ayala Land a “buy” in its report last May 4, although its target price was cut to P33.70 per share from P37.40 each.
That offers a nearly 130 percent upside from current levels, enough to tempt bargain hunters.
Like Ayala Land’s efforts to preserve capital, investors may also be holding back buying power if they fear more downside lies ahead.
Miguel R. Camus has been a reporter covering various domestic business topics since 2009.
