First Metro Securities, the brokerage arm of Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank), said the recent US-Iran ceasefire has removed immediate tail risks but left markets in a fragile transition.
“If a durable ceasefire holds, Philippine equities enter a phased relief cycle,” the firm said, pointing to easing oil prices, slower inflation, and improving domestic demand as key catalysts.
The report was dated April 14 and was prepared by FirstMetroSec’s research team led by Mark Angeles.
Relief rally favors large caps
In the first phase over the next few weeks, the brokerage expects a relief rally led by large-cap names such as Ayala Corp. (AC), Ayala Land Inc. (ALI), BDO Unibank Inc. (BDO), Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI), International Container Terminal Services Inc. (ICT), Jollibee Foods Corp. (JFC), Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (MBT), Manila Electric Co. (MER), SM Investments Corp. (SM), SM Prime Holdings Inc. (SMPH), and PLDT Inc. (TEL).
Cyclical and rate plays next
Over the next one to three months, as macro data stabilizes, First Metro Securities sees stronger upside in cyclical sectors, particularly banks BDO, BPI, and MBT, consumer names like JFC, property firms SMPH and ALI, and logistics player ICT.
By three to six months, easing inflation could reopen policy space, lifting rate-sensitive stocks such as AREIT Inc. (AREIT), RL Commercial REIT Inc. (RCR), MREIT Inc. (MREIT), Robinsons Land Corp. (RLC), Megaworld Corp. (MEG), and Security Bank Corp. (SECB), alongside yield plays like Globe Telecom Inc. (GLO), Universal Robina Corp. (URC), and Puregold Price Club Inc. (PGOLD).
Risk still tied to geopolitics
However, First Metro Securities warned that if talks break down, markets could quickly revert to risk-off mode, with higher oil prices weighing on margins, incomes, and sentiment.
That would complicate policy decisions for the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, which may need to balance inflation risks against weakening growth.
Given the uncertainty, the brokerage recommends a balanced strategy for now, while staying ready to rotate into higher-growth names as clearer signals emerge.
—Edited by Miguel R. Camus
