• Consumer demand at risk as inflation pressures household spending.
• Property most exposed to rate hikes, with real estate sales directly impacted.
• Capital spending likely scaled back from an earlier P230 billion plan.
• AC Mobility emerging as a key growth driver on strong electric vehicle demand.
Ayala Corp. warned rising interest rates and inflation could weigh on the consumer market, potentially threatening profit goals after a record year and prompting the country’s oldest conglomerate to dial back aggressive expansion.
Ayala president and CEO Cezar Consing said he expects profit margins to ease as rising prices begin to pressure the corporate giant, whose diversified footprint spans banking, real estate, telecommunications and energy.
Prolonged war to hit earnings
Two years ago, the Zobel family-led company set a goal to reach P65 billion in core profits by 2026, a target that could now be harder to achieve due to the energy crisis unleashed by the Middle East conflict. Core earnings rose 7 percent to P48.3 billion in 2025, amid mixed unit performance.
“The next two or three months will give us more information. In the meantime, we’re sticking to the original targets,” Consing said during a media briefing after their annual stockholders’ meeting on Friday.
Ayala shares slipped nearly 3 percent to P490 per share on Friday while the Philippine Stock Exchange index shed 0.67 percent.
Consing said the group is also closely monitoring inflation and its impact on consumption, the main driver of the Philippine economy.
“[Inflation] will affect aggregate demand, affordability, and a reduction in aggregate demand will obviously affect all businesses, some more than others,” he said.
Resilience across portfolio
Consing said the group’s diversified portfolio, which also includes manufacturing, healthcare, cars, logistics and education, is built to withstand current macro pressures.
“All our businesses will be resilient. All of them. With no exception. You might have one or two businesses not being able to make the same profits or might register losses, but they will be resilient,” he said.
Property most exposed
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has already stepped in, announcing the resumption of rate hikes and signaling more increases ahead to temper rising costs that are expected to persist through 2027.
“That has a direct impact on real estate sales. Now that’s going to get compensated somewhat by the other side of our real estate business, leasing,” Consing said.
“But in terms of relative impact, if you had to say one business that could be affected more than most, I suspect it’s probably our real estate business,” he added.
On Thursday, Ayala Land's leadership said it will focus on leasing and hotels to cushion the downturn in key residential segments.
Spending trimmed, growth pockets emerge
Ayala signaled it would maintain investments across its portfolio while scaling back aggressive capital spending plans to guard against uncertainty and support cash flow and its balance sheet.
Consing said Ayala may cut spending plans initially budgeted at as much as P230 billion to about P180 billion, matching last year’s spending.
“I suspect the number will probably look more like last year’s number,” he said.
Bright spots within smaller portfolio firms include healthcare, which became profitable in 2025, and its automotive portfolio under AC Mobility, which expects to post profitability in 2026 thanks to soaring BYD electric vehicle sales during the energy crisis.
The firm’s logistics arm is also on track to reach operating profitability in 2026 and net income-positive by 2027, AC Logistics CEO Erry Hardianto said on the sidelines of the stockholders’ meeting.
