Can GCash avoid the listing day blues of the PSE’s biggest IPOs?

Insider Spotlight

• Historical warning — All five of the Philippine Stock Exchange’s largest completed initial public offerings (IPOs) struggled on their trading debuts, with four closing below their offer prices.
• GCash’s challenge — The fintech giant’s anticipated IPO could face similar pressure, particularly if its valuation leaves little room for immediate gains.
• Long-term opportunity — Weak listing-day performances do not necessarily signal poor investments, as several major IPOs subsequently rewarded patient shareholders.

GCash is set to become the Philippine Stock Exchange’s biggest listing today, but the stock performance of other large firms on the bourse suggest its first trading day may be anything but spectacular.

The country’s five largest completed IPOs, ranked by total offer size including secondary shares and overallotments, all failed to deliver positive first-day returns.

By the numbers

Monde Nissin, which raised P55.89 billion in 2021, closed unchanged at P13.50. Maynilad Water Services, whose P34.34-billion IPO debuted in November 2025, slipped 0.13 percent.

Converge ICT Solutions suffered the steepest decline, plunging 9.40 percent following its P29.08-billion offering in 2020.

SM Investments dropped 3.60 percent after raising P28.75 billion in 2005, while Robinsons Retail Holdings declined 2.59 percent following its P28.12-billion IPO in 2013.

Why it matters

Large IPOs frequently struggle because their enormous share supply requires substantial buying demand to sustain prices.

Institutional investors may also sell portions of their allocations immediately, while retail investors seeking quick profits can amplify downward pressure.

Unlike smaller offerings, where limited available shares can trigger sharp rallies, blockbuster IPOs must absorb considerably larger selling volumes.

The bigger picture

An IPO’s offer price also matters as companies commanding premium valuations may leave investors questioning whether anticipated earnings growth already justifies the price.

GCash, with its established digital payments ecosystem and expanding financial services business, could attract significant institutional interest.

However, strong demand during bookbuilding does not guarantee equally strong buying once trading begins.

What to watch

History also offers encouragement.

SM Investments and Robinsons Retail subsequently traded substantially above their IPO prices, demonstrating how business expansion and earnings growth can eventually outweigh disappointing debuts.

Converge likewise recovered from its initial slump and later exceeded its offering price, although subsequent performance has fluctuated.

Monde Nissin illustrates the opposite risk, with post-listing challenges weighing on its shares.

For GCash, the crucial variables will be valuation, offering size, investor allocation and prevailing market sentiment.

The bottom line

GCash may possess compelling growth prospects, but avoiding the PSE’s blockbuster IPO listing curse will require more than an attractive business story.

Its shares must be priced attractively enough to generate sustained buying demand after the opening bell.

— Edited by Daxim L. Lucas