BDO Securities: Ghost Month dips may open PSE buying opportunities

Insider Spotlight

• Ghost Month superstition seen to dampen trading activity
• PSEi posted positive returns in 6 of last 10 Ghost Months
• BDO advises investors to stay rational, diversify, and monitor trends

The stock brokerage unit of the country’s largest private financial institution cautioned investors against letting superstition dictate trading decisions during Ghost Month, noting that while volumes typically dip, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) has still managed to deliver gains in more than half of the past 10 years.

In an emailed note to clients on Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2025, BDO Securities said reduced activity linked to the observance of the seventh lunar month often weighs on sentiment, but it also opens opportunities for long-term investors willing to buy at lower entry points.

The superstition effect

The so-called Ghost Month — which, this year, runs from Aug. 23 to Sept. 21 — is rooted in Chinese traditions that consider the period unlucky for making big life or financial decisions. This belief leads many market participants to avoid launching ventures or buying shares.

BDO data showed that over the past decade, average value turnover slipped 4.9 percent during Ghost Month. In 2023, trading volume fell by 21.1 percent compared to the period before.

Ghost Month market performance 

Despite the slowdown in trading, PSEi returns have been mixed, with six out of the last 10 Ghost Months ending in positive territory. The index posted an average gain of 0.6 percent during the period.

Some stocks have consistently outperformed during Ghost Month. These include SLI (11.8 percent average return, 80 percent win rate), GSMI (10.3 percent, 70 percent), MAXS (8.9 percent, 70 percent), and NIKL (8.1 percent, 80 percent).

According to BDO, “Out of all the listed stocks in the PSE, these names appeared to have a better win rate in the past 10 years compared to the PSEi’s 60 percent. These stocks also outperformed the PSEi’s 10-year average return of 0.6 percent.”

The strategies

BDO Securities recommends three core approaches for investors:

1. Stay Rational – Avoid decisions based solely on superstition.
2. Diversify – Spread investments across sectors to manage risk.
3. Monitor Trends – Track market developments and economic indicators.

"Note that the stocks mentioned above are purely based on historical statistics," the stockbroker said in its emailed note. "It is highly advised to take into account the fundamentals of the companies as well as their respective prospects and risks."

— Edited by Daxim L. Lucas