Key highlights:
In a statement issued on March 31, 2025, the central bank said this forecast reflects a continued slowdown in price increases, supported by improved supply conditions and currency appreciation, even as some consumer costs remain elevated.
According to the BSP, upward pressures for the month are driven by higher electricity rates and increases in the prices of fish and meat. However, these are likely to be offset by declining prices of rice, fruits, and vegetables, which have benefitted from favorable domestic harvests and a stronger peso.
In recent years, the lowest inflation rates recorded were 1.9 percent in September 2024 and 1.6 percent in May 2020, the latter being four years and 10 months ago.
If the actual March inflation figure lands near the lower end of the forecast, it would place inflation well within the government’s 2-4 percent target range and could influence the central bank’s monetary policy stance going forward.
The BSP noted that it will continue to take a “measured approach” in managing inflation, aiming to maintain price stability while supporting sustainable economic growth and employment.
March’s projected range follows a trend of easing inflation in recent months — with the February consumer price index coming in at 2.1 percent — and could strengthen expectations that interest rates may remain steady or even begin to ease later in the year, depending on underlying price dynamics.
The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release the official March inflation data on April 4, 2025, Friday.
