The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said its Monetary Board will adopt a “calibrated approach” for its interest rate policy despite the government announcing that September inflation had dropped to 1.9 percent — its lowest level since May 2020.
The current consolidation plan was put in place to reduce the government’s deficit and debt, both of which grew due to massive spending during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Warning signs of a slowing Philippine economy may prompt the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to implement “jumbo” cuts that would bring the policy rate back to the prepandemic level.
This drop in dollar loans coincided with a 4-percent depreciation of the Philippine peso against the US dollar during the same period, which likely contributed to decreased borrowing as foreign currency loans became more expensive for local borrowers.
Gross inflows for the month stood at $1.37 billion, with 51.2 percent of these investments going to securities listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange. The remaining 48.8 percent were directed toward peso-denominated government securities.
This dip in confidence for the year ahead signals consumer caution amid rising concerns over inflation, interest rates, and unemployment. Households expect inflation to average 5.9% over the next year, well above the government’s target range of 2% to 4%.
According to the central bank, the Residential Real Estate Price Index increased by 2.7% year-on-year, marking a significant deceleration from the 6.1% annual increase recorded in the first quarter of 2024.
Credit risk was the most cited risk, driven by high interest rates and non-performing loans. Operational risks, including cybersecurity threats, were also a key concern, especially for digital banks.
Aboitiz-led Union Bank of the Philippines approved a P1.6-billion infusion into digital banking unit UnionDigital Bank after the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipnas allowed banks to free up reserves for lending.