Where once Metro Manila, or the National Capital Region (NCR), stood as the unquestioned center of demand, attention is now continuing to drift outward.
Just as people once sought shelter beyond the capital’s crowded streets during the COVID-19 lockdown, today the momentum flows steadily toward the provinces—where space feels more abundant, communities are more open, and growth is less confined.
First movers’ market
Some of the top property developers who were able to establish developments around areas outside NCR already reaped rewards from their early investments amid the geographical shift in demand, while others followed suit.
Megaworld (MEG) posted a 9.13-percent increase in real estate sales during the first half of 2025, driven largely by strong performances from its major provincial townships, including Maple Grove, Mactan Newtown, Northwin Global City, and The Upper East.
The company also managed to secure pricing of these projects closely on par with Metro Manila levels, thanks to the integrated township model of its developments. Geographically, sales from provincial projects now account for 38 percent of the total, up from 28 percent in 2019.
Ayala Land (ALI) now derives 46 percent of its residential sales from locations outside Metro Manila, a massive jump from 33 percent in 2019. Management highlighted their sustained push to grow township developments in Southern Luzon—especially Nuvali and Vermosa—citing the strong performance these projects have delivered.
SM Prime (SMPH), on the other hand, has adapted to this shift in demand, with most of its upcoming launches now focused on areas outside NCR, reflecting the softer market conditions within the metro.
Pockets of opportunity
Many Filipinos have chosen to remain in their hometowns after fleeing Metro Manila during the pandemic—and, unexpectedly, offices went along.
According to Colliers’ second-quarter office report, tenants are now beginning to explore sites beyond Metro Manila’s traditional business districts, led by Cebu, Laguna, Cavite, and Batangas, while Pangasinan, La Union, Tarlac, and Dumaguete also received inquiries as businesses continue to explore untapped talent pools.
That said, the availability of BPO-ready offices remains limited—an opportunity for developers that have the financial muscle to shift strategies or build fresh projects, especially as the capital’s office market continues to feel the drag from the POGO exit.
Leisure in suburbia
In a similar fashion, malls have been brought close to home, and hotels continue to flourish in tourist hotspots with mostly local tourists in mind, as robust demand for domestic travel offsets the weakness in international tourist arrivals.
Colliers reported that domestic tourism expenditure climbed by 16.4 percent from P2.7 trillion to P3.1 trillion, while the Philippines ranked highest in Southeast Asia in terms of average expenditure per arrival and length of stay.
To capitalize on this, developers filled their pipelines with hotel developments in the provinces, especially in Cebu.
Robinsons Land (RLC) jumped into action with their 223-room ultra-luxury NUSTAR Hotel Cebu launch last May.
MEG’s partnership with global hospitality brand Accor led to the rebranding of Belmont Hotel Mactan to Mercure Mactan Cebu. ALI and SMPH’s hospitality arms remained on the wings after declaring their hotel key targets for the next five years.
Meanwhile, mall leasing has been steadily recovering back to pre-pandemic levels, supported by higher foot traffic and stronger tenant sales, with some malls even surpassing their performance prior to the crisis.
Key developers have already allocated cash for their provincial mall renovations and expansions.
Premium developer Rockwell Land (ROCK) is bringing its flagship Power Plant Mall to Angeles City, while SMPH aims to develop landmark flagship malls over the next five years, starting with SM Sta. Rosa by 2026, Harrison Plaza by 2027, SM Malolos by 2028, and unnamed malls for Cavite in 2029.
Investor’s Digest
Crisis is often said to be the best catalyst for innovation, and the consecutive shocks of the pandemic, high interest rates, and oversupply in Metro Manila have forced developers to look for other opportunities.
After being one of the laggard sectors in years past, we now believe that the property sector is well-positioned for a rebound against the backdrop of declining interest rates and recovering demand.
The Philippine property market is steadily being redefined beyond the traditional borders of Metro Manila, as population centers become more distributed. In turn, this fuels a shift in demand, demographics, and consumption trends.
While we acknowledge that there are still looming risks such as the “Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025” and the persistent condo glut, we remain optimistic that the property sector will soon get its fair share of the spotlight as its pivot and reinvention start to bear fruit.
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