Insider Spotlight
The Zobel family-backed Ayala Corp., the country’s oldest conglomerate, kept buying shares of its property arm through the downturn, steadily increasing its exposure even as ALI’s stock and its core housing business came under pressure.
Shares of the developer, under the stock symbol ALI, were trading at around P15 each on Tuesday, their lowest level in years.
Ayala keeps buying through the pain
Meanwhile, the real estate, banking, telecommunications and power conglomerate has deployed billions of pesos along the way, including purchases ahead of ALI’s downgrade in the MSCI index that has intensified selling pressure.
Even after this process, Ayala continues to support the stock.
“Ayala Corporation has continued to accumulate Ayala Land (ALI) shares from the open market, providing a strong signal that the parent company views ALI’s current valuation as attractive and potentially below its underlying long-term value,” Ron Acoba, chief investment strategist at Trading Edge Consultancy, told InsiderPH.
A bet on the next property cycle
That bet is becoming more interesting as Ayala Land, which developed some of the country’s most important master-planned communities—including the Makati City financial district and Bonifacio Global City in Taguig—itself ramps up spending.
The developer recently raised its 2026 capital spending budget to about P60 billion, reversing part of the steep cut made when the Middle East war worsened an already weak and oversupplied housing market.
“ALI’s underlying business may itself be approaching an inflection point. The company’s decision to increase capital expenditures (capex) this year suggests that management is becoming more constructive on the operating environment and is preparing for a renewed investment and growth cycle,” Acoba said.
“Against this backdrop, AC’s continued accumulation becomes more significant: the parent is increasing its exposure at depressed valuations just as ALI appears to be shifting back toward expansion,” he added.
Buyers aren’t walking away
Even property buyers are sticking it out with Ayala Land, including those caught in one of its most surprising recent decisions.
Laurean Residences, the P28-billion luxury Makati tower Ayala Land put on hold, had already secured more than P10 billion in bookings before sales and development were stopped earlier this year.
Buyers could move to another Ayala Land project, take a full refund with interest or stay and wait.
“If you’re wondering about the buyers, actually 50 percent decided to hold, to stay with us, to wait for a decision,” Ayala Land president and CEO Anna Ma. Margarita “Meean” Dy said during a briefing last month.
Half choose to wait
Dy said Ayala Land will revisit Laurean’s plans only in 2027, leaving buyers with no firm restart date.
In very different ways, Ayala Corp. and property buyers are choosing to stay invested through the uncertainty.
Has the worst already passed?
Together, those signals suggest Ayala Land may be closer to a turning point than the gloom around the property market suggests.
“While stronger earnings delivery will still be needed to confirm a sustainable turnaround, the combination of higher capex, improving growth prospects, and continued parent-company buying suggests that ALI’s fundamental and share-price downcycle may have already bottomed,” Acoba said.
This turnaround still has to show up in the bottom line.
But through one of the sector’s most challenging cycles in years, confidence in Ayala Land has proved remarkably durable, from the family that controls it to the buyers putting their money into its projects.
—Edited by Miguel R. Camus
