Insider Spotlight
Speaking during economic briefings in Cebu and Bacolod, RCBC executives urged businesses to strengthen cash flow management and adopt foreign exchange risk strategies even as oil prices ease and shipping routes begin to normalize following a framework agreement to end regional hostilities.
The big picture
The economic briefings, the bank said in a news release, gathered business leaders, executives, and entrepreneurs to discuss the impact of geopolitical tensions on trade, inflation, and currency markets while outlining strategies to protect business margins and liquidity.
RCBC head of trade and supply chain finance Alexei Jabola said businesses should match financing solutions with their position in the supply chain and liquidity requirements.
“The right solution for your business depends entirely on your position in the supply chain and your specific liquidity needs.”
Jabola said trade finance solutions, including payables finance and receivables finance, can help businesses manage working capital amid volatile exchange rates, higher energy costs, and supply chain disruptions.
He added that RCBC will introduce digital trade and supply chain finance capabilities on its corporate online banking platform in 2026, allowing clients to initiate and manage transactions such as letters of credit, bank guarantees, Bureau of Customs PAS6 payments, and supply chain finance services online.
Why it matters
For businesses with foreign exchange exposure, RCBC head of corporate and commercial distribution Maria Pamela C. Macapagal urged companies to focus on managing risk rather than trying to predict where the peso or the dollar will move.
“Seeing the dollar-peso rate where it is now, forecasts can help as a guide but there is no way to know with certainty where it is headed. In my 20 years as a treasury professional, history has shown that you can never call where levels are going to settle,” Macapagal said.
“What we are advocating is to adopt a risk management strategy – map out your exposure, define your worst-case rate, and then implement hedging strategies to protect your margins and lock in your costs. There is no way to pick the bottom,” she added.
During the forum, RCBC chief economist Michael L. Ricafort said the bank's base-case scenario projects inflation to average 6 to 7 percent in 2026 if elevated oil prices persist, above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' estimate of 6.4 percent.
Ricafort also estimated gross domestic product growth could slow to around three to four percent, below the government's target of five to six percent, while the BSP's policy rate could rise to between 5.5 percent and six percent by yearend from the current 4.75 percent.
Adjustments in investment, expansion plans
“The US economy has slowed down, just like the rest of the world. As the largest economy, the US will be hesitant to cut rates. However, most Fed officials already signaled possible Fed rate hike/s from 2026-2027,” Ricafort said.
“Investors worldwide will try to cut costs, and we will see margin compression across industries. Investment and expansion plans will have to adjust to the new reality,” he added.
He said it could take about one to 1.5 years for inflation to return to the BSP's target of 2 to 4 percent, adding that accelerating renewable energy development remains critical to reducing the country's dependence on imported fuel. — Princess Daisy C. Ominga| Corrie S. Narisma
